THOROUGHBRED NICKS

SIRES OVER BROODMARE SIRES ARE VERY RARELY A NICK AND THEN THEY MUST HAVE EXTRA COMING THROUGH OTHER PARTS OF THE PEDIGREE TO RISE TO THE TOP. and there are some that pedigree analysts that have written about for years  like the Northern Dancer/ Mr Prospector nick, yet this only works 7% of the time so what about the other 93%, these are not very good odds at all. Looking at some that have been mentioned by numerous writers over the years are;

ZABEEL OVER VICE REGAL MARES
This cross was done only 39 times for 7 group one winners, nearly 18% G1 winners to foals which are fantastically high, they were. Green Street, Our Unicorn, Helene Vitality, Jezzabeel, Grand Echezeaux, Hades and My Royal Captain plus a group 3 and a listed winner.that 25% s/w to named foals. 
 Zabeels bottom line goes to the mare Diseuse and Vice Regal’s dam sire Le Filou is out of a daughter of Diseuse, To analyze these group one winners under my learnings. With the 5Th dam of Zabeel being by Vatellor out of Diseuse and Le Filou also by Vatellor out of a daughter of Diseuse this is a sister to the 3/4 brother.
Then you get Man’O’ War 7F x 6M for a colts breeding and Solario 7F x 7F for a filly’s breeding in this cross also.  However in Green Street and Our Unicorn both these geldings have Panorama in the bottom half of the dams pedigree which gives line-breeding to Sir Cosmo 6F x 7M the other 3 Geldings Helene Vitality and Hades gives 2 sons of Solario to balance the 2 Daughters in the Zabeel x Vice Regal cross and My Royal Captain gives balanced line-breeding to Round Table. Then the 2 mares Jezzabeel has the sister Monarchy in her dams bottom half of the pedigree to balance the full brother Round Table that’s in Zabeel and last but not least Grand Echezeaux carries the mare Tara through a daughter in her bottom half of her pedigree to match the Tara coming through the son Norseman 4th dam sire of Zabeel.

SONS OF ZABEEL OVER GRANDDAUGHTERS OF VICE REGAL 
This mating has been done 30 times, but as the 3/4 cross of Vatellor / Diseuse   However on this occasion there are 2 group one winners Booming and  Sound Proposition, this is because Booming is out of a mare by Grosvenor and Sound Proposition is out of a mare by a son of Grosvenor , who carries another daughter of Le Filou and this makes the statement you may of heard, Quantity overcomes distance, mind you it is working maybe not to the same extent but it does have a further 2 x G.2 and 3 x G.3 for a good 23% Group winners to starters.

TAVISTOCK OVER ZABEEL MARES
I have heard it said Zabeel’s mares is a cross as there are 5 out of 10 group winners bred this way and another 2 have him as the grandam sire from the 278 starters, however, they are all male, That's just under 5% group-winners to runners.
I hope to show you need other lines to be a group winner.
Volkstock’n’barrell 4 x G.1 Tavistock’s 6th dam by Big Game and the dam sire Volksraad 5th dam by Combat a son of Big Game plus his second dam Long Row carries 3 daughters of Panorama balancing the son found in Tavistock’s 4th dam sire The Whistler (bottom line breeding gives influence for a good horse. that means one of his best ones has not got Zabeel.
Werther 4 x G.1, Dam by Zabeel, his third dam Fluorescent is by Herbager, which balances the daughter of Herbager in Tavistock.
Tarzino 2 x G.1 dam by Zabeel, dam’s sire line through Star Way goes to Herbager 
Tavago G.1 dam by Stravinsky who carries a daughter of Blushing Groom to balance the son in Tavistock.but does have Zabeel as his second dam sire
Infantry 2 x G1 also dam by Stravinskyhence the Blushing Groom again, however no Zabeel he also carries balanced Mahmoud, Raise A Native, Native Dancer, Hyperion and Djebel.
Hasselhoff G.2 dam by Zabeel, his 2nd dam sire is Zamazaan whose sire line goes to Vieux Manoir that is 7M x 8M,7F in Tavistock whose son Val De Loir is also bred to 6M x 7F in Tavistock.
Tavidream G.2 like Tavigo has Zabeel as second dam sire but the 3rd dam sire is Star Way who carries Herbager
Pacorus G.3 dam by Zabeel also has balanced Nearco in the 6th generation.
Hi Flyer 2 x G.3 Dam by Stravinsky same as Tavago but on this occasion no Zabeel
Gobstopper G.3 Dam by Zabeel , his third dam sire, Flourescent Light is by Herbager , same as in Werther,Tarzino and Tavidream which makes this 40% of his group winners carrying Herbager

PIERRO / DANEHILL cross
I found this in print so I thought It needs a reply with my thoughts.
PEDIGREE COMMENTS:
Leading First Season Sire Pierro has already proven himself with Danehill line mares – his Group 3 winner TULIP is out of a Rock of Gibraltar mare and is set to take her place in this year’s Golden Slipper. The Lonhro/Danehill cross is one of the most successful crosses on record with a staggering 7% Stakes winners to runners and over 77% winners to runners!
Here are my findings, in his first season at stud he covered 199 mares that produced 144 live foals. With only 8 winners he was able to claim the Champion first season sire, the following year he had 154 foals taking his tally to 298 of which 72 are winners of 120 races at the end of July 2018, which is approx 1 in every 4 at the moment. 
Here is an analyst of his best ones,
Pinot, his G1 winning filly, second dam by Danehill, this is what I wrote when she won the Oaks, Pinot has a double of Zabeel there are 34 runners that have this and she is the only stakes winner, but it has a gap in generations so it normally has no effect, however on this occasion as Pierro carries the son and daughter of Special the Zabeel does contribute by bringing another son of Special through. This pedigree also has line breeding to 2 daughters of Princequillo behind Mill Reef and an independent line with Somethingroyal plus 2 daughters of Buckpasser, plus the full sister Tessa Gillian refer dam line of Octagonal and the full brother Royal Charger who appears twice as the sire of Turn-To.
Levendi, G.1 winning Colt, his dam sire Redoute’s Choice, this pedigree shows me that it also has
Knights Romance on the powerful dam line is a son of Royal Charger which is balanced by the sister Tessa Gillian in Pierro.

Tulip, G.2 winner her grandsire is by Danehill but also has Royal Charger in the pedigree of the doubled up Sir Ivor to balance the sister Tessa Gillian.
Action,
G.2 winner His dam sire is also Redoute's Choice by Danehill also has in the pedigree  linebreeding to Sir Ivor 6M x 6F and Relic 6M x 7F,7F
Perata, G.3 winner, the dam sire Flying Spur by Danehill also has line breeding 4M x 3F to Zabeel also Sir Ivor 6M x 5F, 5M  Forli 6M x 6F Northern Dancer 5Mx 5M,6F,6M and Native Dancer 7M,7F x 7F,7F, 6M.
Roy Had Enough,  listed winner, the second dam is by Danehill but also has, Sir Ivor 6M x 5F Nasrullah 7M,7M x 7M, 7M, 7F Hail To Reason 7M x 7F Princequillo 7F x7M Bold Ruler 7F x 6M  and balanced Native Dancers.
Kentucky Breeze, Listed winner also dam by Redoute's Choice, also has Round Table 7F x 7M Relic 6M x 7F, which shows up in Redoute’s Choice this may be assisting but is not the answer and balanced Native Dancers.
Satin Slipper, Listed winner, the dam sire Flying Spur by Danehill also has the very close relations, Octagonal by a son of Sir Tristram out of Eight Carat to the sire line and Kaapstad by Sir Tristram out of Eight Carat to the dam line.
To summarize Danehill appears  in 58% of Pierro's progeny that have raced and  8 of his 9 stakes winners have Danehill , so the percentages are 7.0% for group winners and 9.41 % for stake-winners ,these figures may improve or deteriorate over the next  few years but one thing is for certain,I do not think the figures stake up at the moment to call Pierro/Danehill a successful cross plus as shown they all have other line-breeding that is contributing.

IFFRAAJ OVER DANEHILL MARES

I was asked if Danehill mares are the answer to Iffraaj, as he is the damsire of 
Turn Me Loose, who has just recently retired to stud plus Chriselliam G1, Fix G2 and Nathra G.3 are also out of Danehill mares.
There are only 55 named foals with the above 4 being group winners and 7% group winners overall but is it the Danehill cross doing it?
 I have always stated the tail female line of the mare is the best place to carry linebreeding through as it’s a direct X to the foal, as per chromosome charting. So let's see what my findings were:
Turn me loose, 2011 colt dam by Danehill, his 6th dam Metallic is by Nasrullah balancing for a colt by the 3 sons of Nasrullah in Iffraaj
Chriselliam, 2011 filly dam by Danehill her 6th dam Sun Lane is by Hyperion balancing the son and daughter of Hyperion in Iffraaj
Now to his group 2 and G.3 winners that also has Danehill as their damsire
Fix, 2009, filly dam by Danehill  6th dam Recess is by Count Fleet to balance the 2nd dam of Mr ProspectorSequence by Count Fleet in Iffraaj this pedigree also has Tamerett 5F x 5M.
Nathra 2013 filly 7th dam is Phebe a daughter of Pharos balanced by the full brother Fairway giving the daughter Queen Of The Meadows. 
Viewing another couple of group one winners, it was interesting to note that they also had line breeding to their dam line's they were;
Rizenna 2011, filly dam by Stature of Liberty her 6th dam Pat’s Irish is by Tudor Minstrel balancing the son and daughter of Tudor Minstrel in Iffraaj
Benvenue 2009, colt dam by Be My Guest his 6th dam Sun Helmet is also by Hyperion as per Chriselliam mentioned above
 No computer program in the world that I am aware of has been programed to pick up this.

 LE FILOU OVER RED MARS MARES.

In the 1960's Harold Hampton pushed for the mating of Red Mars mares to be covered by the stallion Le Filou, this nick of the sister in Le Filou- Castleline in the 5th generation to the full brother Knight of the Garter also in the 5th generation of Red Mars gave Bart Cummings his first and third Melbourne cup winners, Light Fingers 1965 and Red Handed in 1967.
 
With my findings, a broodmare sire's nick is only part of the pedigree, as a lot of the other horses in a 7 generation pedigree will influence the quality of the offspring. It may look like that it is the broodmare sire having this influence due to the numbers of coverings done. This occurs naturally on any particular stud as its regular clients would very likely to have daughters of the stud’s previous stallion.

The computer programs that are available giving nicks should only be used as a guide, I use them myself for this purpose, yet these results can never be compared to being able to see with your own eyes and personal knowledge of the total seven generation pedigree. I will try to explain why I say this.Returning to Red Handed - Bend Or showed up with a son and daughter for his colt breeding and  carried line breeding to 2 daughters of Bend Or of which one was to the direct powerful dam line for the mare Light Fingers and Bend Or did not show up in the broodmare sire Red Mars and without the presence of Bend Or in these pedigree,s I believe neither would have won their Melbourne Cups.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

NOBLE BIJOU OVER MELLAY MARES

Is the famous cross (nick)  true or do you need PAPER MONEY  as well or does it have nothing to do with Mellay and it was the Paper Money's genes working?
 Have a look at the below list
Alibhai (Mellay) Rosehill Guineas G.1 and Rawson S G.1 5th dam by (Paper Money)
Powley (Mellay) One Thousand Guineas G.1 second dam’s sire's dam by (Paper Money)
Prince Majestic (Mellay) 3 x G.1 winner, QE, Spring and Tancred, 3rd dam’s sire by( Paper Money).
Bi Noble (Mellay) dual G.1 winner brother to Prince Majestic 3rd dam’s sire by (Paper Money)
Allez Bijou (Mellay) Rawson Stakes G.1 3rd dam sire by (Paper Money)
The Phantom, Underwood S G.1 second dam by Mellay 6th dam by (Paper Money)
Robinski (Mellay) multiple G.2 and G.3 winner 4th dam sire by (Paper Money)
Our Sophia (Mellay) G.1 AJC Oaks  no Paper money
The Dimple (Mellay) winner of 3 x G.3 races 5th dam by (Paper Money).
Caparo G3 winner this time no Mellay but does have (Paper Money) as the 3rd damsire.
Courier Flight G.3 no Mellay but 4th dam by (Paper Money)
Kumai G.3( Mellay) but no Paper Money. 

CAPTAIN RIO OVER GOLD BROSE MARES, FACT OR FALLACY. 

Another analyzed stallion is Captain Rio, I only picked this horse as I try to keep my
website writings to horses that are mentioned elsewhere on this website, in this case, Super Easy who is out of a Gold Brose mare, so, therefore, I am not selecting horses that can prove what I have written.
 ll Quello Veloce and Terravista both Group one winners, with  total stakes earnings of $3,167M,  The interesting part is their mares are full sisters so they really work as the same mating and therefore would not be a nick, Additionally the stallion Twig Moss is their second damsire, this stallion carries a horse named Cranach in the 6th generation through a daughter and it is also in Captain Rio’s pedigree through another daughter, This is considered to be line breeding for a filly
 so the question arises "does Captain Rio need Twig Moss and not Gold Brose to get a good horse" such as Il Quello Veloce, another note of interest is that her dam was unraced, whilst Parfore dam of Terravista only won 1 race for $10k, yet a full brother called Sparky won NZ$800K in Hong Kong, so was this a case where these mares carried linebreeding for a colt and not a filly? the answer is yes, as the pedigree  carries the full brothers Agropolis and Alycidon giving a son and a daughter 5F X 5M 
Yet if we look at the pedigree of another G1 winner by Captain Rio, a 2007 filly who was purchased by Paul Moroney for $26K out of the 2009 Select Sale she became Brazilian Pulse, her linebreeding shows 4F x4M to Nijinsky with further linebreeding of Charlottesville 6M x 6F but this is colts linebreeding  the female strain coming through the daughter Dodoma daughter of the mare Mumtaz Begum and The Nasrullah's son of Mumtaz Begum in Captain Rio. Terravista also has Nijinsky 4Fx 5M, Princequillo 7M,6F x 7M, Nearco 7M,7M,7F and Fair Trial 6M x 7F.

 

BREEDING HISTORY OF PARFORE, BROODMARE OF THE YEAR 2015
Let’s start with her dam Classy Twiggy a listed winner of 5 races she had 5 foals
1995 Marloo by Palace Music, unraced and dam of 8 named foals for 13 wins
1996 Sparky by Gold Brose a gelding that won 6 races,
1997 Parfore by Gold Brose, a mare that won one race, and was mated once to Captain Rio with the resulting foal becoming the G1 winner Terravista.
1998 Nishaani by Gold Brose, an unraced mare, who became the dam of Il Quello Veloce G1 winner, also sired by Captain Rio, she had one full brother Captain Bro, 2 wins and three full sisters,
 Donna Cattiva listed winner, Jemerica, 3 wins and Another Superior a winner of one race.
1999 Golden Sparkle by Gold Brose, unraced dam of 8 named foals including Mosse by O’Reilly
G3 winner of 5 races and three by Captain Rio, the colts Captain Oblivious, 4 wins in Singapore
and Champagne Rein, 2 wins, plus the filly Bonete 2 wins.
 Therefore looking at the mating of Captain Rio over the full sisters, Parfore, Nishaani and
Golden Sparkle, this was done 9 times for 2 group one winners,a listed winner and the other 6 winning between 1 to 4 races each. Which makes all these full sisters or brothers in blood;
 I believe this is also a good illustration of how Mendel’s Law works.
NOW TO ALL PARFORE's PROGENY.
2002 Ininthree Filly by Generous winner of 2 races, Hyperion 7F x 7F 
2003 Our Lukas Colt by Generous 5 times listed winner of 12 races Bois Roussel 5M x 6F, Hyperion 7Fx 7M,7F and Nearco 6M x 7F
2004 Our Boy Lukas Colt by Faltaat winner of 9 races bred to Nearco 6M x 7F, they all have this cross but I believe you need more to get a good horse, also Miss Raggedy Ann and little Bridge both these G1 winners were by Faltaat out of Gold Brose mares, is this a case of a nick or just that Faltaat got a lot of Gold Brose mares?
2006 Frustrating Colt by Stravinsky winner of 2 races, Fair Trial 7M x 7F
2007 TigerTees Colt by Dubawi G1 winner of 13 races, Sir Ivor 6F x 5M, Hyperion 7M x 7F Princequillo 7F x 7M and Nearco 7M x 7F
2008 Super Easy Colt by Darci Brahma 3 x G1 winner of 15 races, has linebreeding to Sir Tristram 4M x 4F Fair Trial 7M x 7F Hyperion 7F, 7M x 7F, Nearco 6M x7F, Plus the full sisters Special x Lisadell
2009 Terravista Colt by Captain Rio G1 winner of 9 races, Nijinsky 4M x 5F Fair Trial 6M x 7F Princequillo 6F x 7M, Nearco 7M x 7F and Sir Gaylord 7F x 6M Plus the full sisters Special x Lisadell
2010 Ball of Muscle Colt by Dubawi listed winner of 8 races, he naturally has the same line breeding as his brother Tiger Tees.
Plus even though Super Easy and Terravista are by different stallions they both have the full sisters Special and Lisadell doubled up.

I also believe this shows that normally there is line-breeding to explain good horses.